Asher Projects Record-Low Murder Rate for 2026 as Gun Control Warnings Fail
Crime analyst Jeff Asher projects the United States will record its lowest murder rate ever in 2026. His national forecast points to roughly 12,000 murders and a rate near 3.5 per 100,000 people, a drop of about 16 percent from 2025. Asher made the call as the year entered its final quarter, when year-end trends start to firm up. If the projection holds, 2026 will mark the fewest murders since 1967, a year when the country had around 150 million fewer residents. That result cuts directly against the argument gun control groups have pushed for four years: that Bruen, permitless carry and federal policy shifts would send violence climbing.
Key Details
Asher’s numbers cover the national picture and a set of major cities. The figures below come from his analysis.
- National forecast: about 12,000 murders and a rate near 3.5 per 100,000 in 2026.
- Historical comparison: consistent murder-rate estimates go back to about 1960. Asher expects 2026 to sit well below every year in that series.
- Year-over-year drop: murders are falling about 16 percent in 2026, a smaller decline than the one recorded in 2025.
- New Orleans: 145 homicides from January through August 2023, compared with 53 over the same stretch of 2026. Permitless carry took effect in the city on August 1, 2024.
- Baltimore: 334 homicides in 2022, 133 in 2025, and another 12.9 percent decline so far in 2026.
- New York City: 438 murders in 2022, 305 in 2025, and a further 18.8 percent drop this year. Asher expects fewer than 300 murders by year’s end.
- Los Angeles: 387 murders in 2022, 224 in 2025, and a 2.7 percent decline from January through August 2026.
Asher also stressed that crime moves in cycles. He still expects the overall decline to continue, with Asher’s own national forecast tool set for release on the Crime Index.
Background
The gun control argument has shifted over time, but its core claim has stayed the same. In June 2022, the Supreme Court decided New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen. The ruling struck down New York’s proper-cause requirement for carrying a handgun in public and made clear that similar discretionary licensing schemes faced serious constitutional problems. Several former may-issue states had to rewrite their carry laws in response. Opponents warned that easier carry would produce more shootings. Permitless carry, sometimes called constitutional carry, has spread since Arizona adopted it in 2010. Roughly half the states now allow adults to carry without a permit. Since Bruen, critics have added new targets, including the reduction of federal grants for community violence prevention programs, the Supreme Court’s Wolford case over Hawaii’s default ban on carrying on private property open to the public, changes inside the ATF, and the Justice Department’s decision not to enforce NFA registration requirements. Each has been cited as a reason violence would rise. The murder data has not followed that script.
Why It Matters for Gun Owners
Lower homicide numbers help carriers in practical ways. Every year of falling murder rates weakens the political case for stripping permitless carry or restoring discretionary permitting. Legislators in permitless carry states and in former may-issue states will point to the city data Asher cited, especially New Orleans, Baltimore and New York. Gun owners in those places should expect the data to be used in both directions. Opponents will say the drop happened despite carry laws, while supporters will say the laws had nothing to do with it. Either way, the records will shape hearings and budget fights. Owners who carry should keep their state training and permit paperwork current, and they should track local crime reporting, since city dashboards often shape the next round of public debate. Anyone in a state with pending carry or NFA legislation should watch how lawmakers frame the statistics. The numbers will travel fast, and they will be quoted by people who have never read the underlying data.
DownRange Analysis
Crime rates do not prove a legal theory. A national murder decline has many drivers, including policing, demographics, economic conditions and the aftermath of the pandemic-era spike. Bruen was never about crime statistics. It holds that carrying for self-defense is part of the Second Amendment right, and that the government must justify restrictions by reference to historical tradition. Declining murder rates do not change that test, and they do not justify new restrictions. They do damage the claim that carry rights cause violence. For gun owners, the practical move is simple. Keep carrying lawfully, keep your training current, and keep your state’s carry statute in your wallet. Watch Wolford closely, because a ruling on private-property carry will shape how far Bruen reaches. Treat the murder data as a tool for public debate, not a shield in court.
