Anti-Gun 'Blood in the Streets' Predictions Keep Missing, SAF Data Shows
Gun-control groups predicted more bloodshed after Bruen, after Garland v. Cargill, and after every permitless carry expansion. The numbers say they were wrong each time. The Second Amendment Foundation's new fact sheet, "The Blood Bath That Never Came," places those predictions beside FBI crime data. SAF legal research director Kostas Moros says the forecasts were "not even close." Brady, Everytown, Giffords, March For Our Lives, and elected officials, including New York City Mayor Eric Adams, issued the warnings. The fact sheet covers the 2022 Supreme Court ruling, the bump-stock decision, carry laws, the NFA tax elimination, and recent DOJ and ATF actions.
Key Details
SAF's fact sheet focuses on specific predictions and checks them against published numbers. Its main findings:
- Bruen (2022): Brady posted that the ruling in NYSRPA v. Bruen would bring more guns and "more gun violence immediately." Adams said the decision would put New Yorkers "at further risk of gun violence."
- National murder trend: SAF says FBI data shows murder fell every year from 2023 through 2025, and each annual drop was larger than the one before.
- New York City: SAF reports 688 shootings in NYC in 2025, the fewest in recorded history, down 20.2%.
- Texas constitutional carry (2021): Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo said permitless carry would make communities more dangerous. SAF reports Texas's murder rate fell 27.3% from 2021 through 2024.
- Florida permitless carry (2023): Giffords said Florida lawmakers were making the gun crisis worse. SAF reports Florida's murder rate fell 18.8% in 2024, the first full year the law was in effect.
- Coverage: SAF says mainstream outlets keep quoting these predictions without checking the record.
SAF Executive Director Adam Kraut says the document is meant for readers who want the research rather than the rhetoric. The full fact sheet has dozens more examples, and SAF says each prediction appears next to the FBI figures that tested it.
Background
The Supreme Court decided New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen in June 2022. It struck down New York's discretionary concealed carry licensing system and set the text, history, and tradition test that now governs Second Amendment challenges. Gun-control groups treated the ruling as a public safety emergency, despite its narrow holding on carry permits.
Texas enacted constitutional carry in 2021, allowing adults who can legally possess a firearm to carry without a permit. Florida followed in 2023 with its own permitless carry law. Both states drew warnings from opponents who predicted more shootings and more disputes settled with gunfire. In Garland v. Cargill, the Court ruled in 2024 that the ATF could not treat bump stocks as machine guns under federal law. The NFA tax on certain items, including suppressors and short-barreled rifles, was later eliminated, which removed a long-standing federal barrier to buying those items.
Why It Matters for Gun Owners
If you carry in Texas or Florida, these numbers matter the next time a politician calls permitless carry a threat. Opponents will not stop making these claims, so you need the data ready. Keep a copy of the SAF fact sheet and the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting figures saved. When a city council or a reporter repeats a "blood in the streets" line, you can answer with dates and percentages.
The pattern also matters for legislation still moving through statehouses. Any state considering constitutional carry, a suppressor or short-barreled rifle change, or a post-Bruen permit reform will face the same forecasts. Pay attention to who makes them and whether they cite actual data. Gun owners who follow local hearings can point out when a predicted outcome never arrived in a state that already passed the same law. Pressure from informed voters changes outcomes more than a press release does.
DownRange Analysis
Bruen was never going to produce the blood bath its critics described. The decision recognized an individual right to carry in public, which the Court grounded in historical tradition. A right that the government never fully honored in many states does not become a crime wave because the state stops denying it. The murder decline SAF cites since 2023 supports that point, though gun owners should be cautious with any single year of crime data and should read the underlying FBI tables before quoting them. Our advice is simple: know the statistics, cite the primary source, and don't let opponents set the terms of the debate. If you carry in a state with constitutional carry, keep your training current, store your firearm securely, and avoid the situations that generate headlines for the wrong reasons.
