FBI Data: Murder Down 18% Since 2024 — Carry Advocates Claim Credit
Justice for Gun Owners, a Canadian advocacy group, says murder in the United States has fallen 18% since 2024, and violent crime has dropped 9%, based on FBI Crime Data Explorer figures. The group, which published the piece on October 5, 2026, credits President Donald Trump's judicial appointments, border closure, and deportation policies, along with armed civilians who carry daily. It sets the U.S. numbers against Canada, where it reports violent crime up 34% since 2015. The FBI numbers are the verifiable part. The causal story is the group's own argument, and the source does not prove it.
Key Details
The source pulls together several figures. Here is what it reports, with the attribution intact:
- Murder: down 18% since 2024, per FBI Crime Data Explorer.
- Violent crime: down 9% over the same period.
- 2026 National Firearms Survey (William English): about 2.2 million defensive gun uses per year, with 70.6% (roughly 1.55 million) never reported to police.
- Shots fired: no shots needed in 76.3% of defensive encounters in 2026, versus 81.9% in the 2021 survey.
- Ownership and carry: at least 32.7% of U.S. adults own guns. Of owners, 14.4% say they often carry a defensive firearm, which the source puts at about 13 million people.
- Multiple assailants: 50.8% of surveyed owners faced more than one attacker. 32.9% faced two, and 17.9% faced three or more.
- Active shooters: the source says armed citizens stopped at least one-third of mass shootings over the past decade. It cites John Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center for the claim that armed civilians stopped more than half of attacks outside gun-free zones in 2025.
- Indiana mall shooting: an armed customer drew within 15 seconds and stopped an attacker about 40 yards away. The attacker had already killed three people and wounded several others.
- Canada: violent crime up 34% since 2015, homicide up 12%, according to the source.
Background
The carry argument rests on a legal shift that began in 2022. In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, the Supreme Court struck down New York's discretionary may-issue carry licensing and set a text-and-history test for Second Amendment cases. Since then, many states have moved toward permitless carry, and the source is correct that most states now allow lawful concealed carry in some form. Indiana, where the mall shooting occurred, is among the states that adopted permitless carry. Trump's first-term Supreme Court appointments helped shape the majorities that decided these cases.
Canada took the opposite path. Under the Trudeau government, a May 2020 order-in-council banned roughly 1,500 makes and models of firearms the government labeled "assault-style." Bill C-21, passed in 2023, added further restrictions, including a freeze on handgun transfers. Mark Carney, who succeeded Trudeau as prime minister in 2025, has kept the framework in place. The source's complaint about "catch-and-release" policy reflects a separate debate about bail and sentencing in Canadian courts.
Why It Matters for Gun Owners
Expect these numbers in legislative hearings and op-eds through the next election cycle. Carry advocates will use the FBI drop to argue that concealed carry works. Gun control groups will argue the decline reflects factors unrelated to firearms, such as post-pandemic trends, policing changes, and demographic shifts. Both sides will cite the same data.
For you, the practical concerns are narrower. Know your state's carry statute and any reciprocity agreements before you cross a state line. Keep your permit and proof of lawful ownership with you. If you carry in Indiana, Texas, or any other permitless state, a lawful carry still carries obligations on property posted against guns and in sensitive locations. Watch the FBI's revised figures, too. Preliminary crime data gets revised as agencies report, and early declines sometimes shrink.
DownRange Analysis
Under Bruen, the crime statistics do not decide constitutionality. Courts ask whether a modern regulation fits the historical tradition of firearm regulation. A national murder decline does not answer that question, and no court will rule on the survey's 2.2 million figure. The source leans on the 2026 survey, which uses self-reported data. Federal victimization surveys have produced far lower defensive-use estimates, and critics have attacked the methodology for decades. Do not build a legal brief on the 2.2 million number without checking the sampling method first.
The Canadian comparison is also weaker than it looks. Crime trends in two countries with different policing, bail, and reporting systems do not isolate firearm policy as a variable. Gun owners get more from the carry argument when they stick to what courts can use: text, history, and documented cases like the Indiana shooting. Take a training course this month, confirm your carry paperwork is current, and know exactly where your state's laws stop you.