Adjusted Gun Checks Hit 1.4 Million in October, Up 7.9%
Retailers ran 1,402,422 adjusted NICS background checks in October 2026, according to NSSF. That beats the adjusted October 2025 figure of 1,299,312 by 7.9%. NSSF strips permit checks and permit rechecks out of the FBI’s raw totals, so the adjusted number tracks transfers at licensed dealers more closely. The raw FBI count tells a different story. The FBI logged 2,104,063 total checks in October, down 8.1% from 2,289,774 a year earlier. Mark Oliva, NSSF’s managing director of public affairs, called the increase proof that buyers were acting on their Second Amendment convictions during the same weeks voters went to the polls.
Key Details
The numbers break down like this:
- October 2026 adjusted NICS: 1,402,422, up 7.9% year over year.
- October 2025 adjusted NICS: 1,299,312.
- October 2026 raw FBI NICS: 2,104,063, down 8.1%.
- October 2025 raw FBI NICS: 2,289,774.
- Top five states for adjusted checks (September 2026 data): Texas, Florida, California, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
- Handgun leader: Florida. Long-gun leader: Texas.
- Permit recognition: 28 states accept at least one qualifying alternative permit that can let a holder buy without a new NICS check for each purchase.
NSSF makes two caveats. One background check can cover several firearms. Other checks never produce a sale at all. NSSF says the adjusted total is a market indicator, not a firearm sales count. Permit-based purchases also fall outside the monthly figures, so the data undercounts some lawful transfers by design.
Background
The FBI runs NICS, the system federally licensed dealers query before most firearm transfers. Congress created the framework through the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act of 1993, and the system went live on November 30, 1998. Every check generates a record, but not every record means a gun changed hands. Carry permits, permit renewals and similar background queries all count in the raw data. NSSF’s adjustment exists because those non-sale queries inflate the headline number. Analysts who compare months must use the same series, or they will mix apples and oranges. The Supreme Court’s 2022 decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen reshaped the legal backdrop by requiring states that restrict carry to justify those limits under the nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation. That ruling pushed more states toward permit-light systems, which changes how many transfers show up in NICS at all.
Why It Matters for Gun Owners
If you buy guns, the October data tells you the market stayed active heading into the fall. Dealers in Texas, Florida, California, Pennsylvania and Virginia handled the most adjusted volume, so those states set the pace for national demand. Florida drove handgun checks. Texas drove long-gun checks. If you live in one of the 28 states that recognize an alternative permit, check whether your permit can substitute for a fresh NICS check under your state’s rules. Do not assume a permit works in another state. Reciprocity varies, and a mistake at the counter can cost you time or a denied transfer. Keep your own transfer records, too. A monthly NSSF release will not document your purchase if the government ever asks questions. Finally, expect the headline to change depending on which number a reporter picks. Raw FBI data fell. Adjusted data rose. Both figures are accurate, and both can be used to tell two stories.
DownRange Analysis
A 7.9% jump in adjusted checks is a solid month, but it is not a sales boom. The adjusted series removes permit activity, yet it still counts multi-gun checks as single events and includes denied checks. Treat it as a directional signal. The Bruen framework matters here because it constrains how states can restrict carry, which pushes permit numbers and purchase patterns in ways monthly NICS data only partly captures. A serious buyer should act on the fundamentals instead of the headline. Confirm your state’s permit recognition rules before you travel with a purchase or buy across state lines. Keep receipts and 4473 copies in a safe place. If you are a retailer or a collector planning inventory, watch the next two or three adjusted releases before you assume October is the new baseline. One strong month does not make a trend.
