SAF Data: Minnesota Permit Holders Convicted at 0.09 Percent
The Second Amendment Foundation just published conviction numbers for concealed carry permit holders, and the figures are hard to argue with. SAF director of Legal Research and Education Kostas Moros compiled the data for Minnesota, Michigan, and Virginia. The results appear on a two-page Fact Sheet posted on the SAF website. Minnesota's permit-holder conviction rate sits at about 0.09 percent. Virginia's is 0.11 percent. Michigan's runs 0.24 percent, but that number includes traffic violations, which inflates it. The data answers an Australian critic who argued that armed civilians and professional security pose a threat to the public.
Key Details
The Fact Sheet is one of seven documents SAF has posted under its "Just the Facts" series. It covers three incidents in which armed private citizens fatally shot would-be mass shooters. One of those incidents took place during a livestreamed church service. The source piece also points to high-profile shootings in Bend, Oregon, and Twin Falls, Idaho, as events that should have ended the argument that good guys with guns cause violence. Its author frames the permit-holder numbers as the bigger picture.
- Minnesota: about 0.09 percent permit-holder conviction rate, roughly 9 in 10,000
- Virginia: 0.11 percent, roughly 11 in 10,000
- Michigan: 0.24 percent, including traffic violations
- Threshold: excluding traffic offenses, the author says rates fall well under half of one percent
- Permit status: Florida recently moved to permitless carry; Minnesota, Michigan, and Virginia still require permits for concealed carry
- Homicide trend: the author says the national homicide rate is in freefall and 2026 will likely be the lowest in generations
Background
The Supreme Court decided New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen in 2022. The majority struck down New York's requirement that applicants show "proper cause" to carry. The Court also set a new test for gun laws. The government must show that a regulation fits within the nation's historical tradition of firearm regulation. Bruen opened the door to far more lawful carriers in states that once restricted permits tightly. Opponents predicted that more permit holders would mean more shootings during arguments and disputes. Florida's permitless carry law, HB 543, took effect July 1, 2023. That law removed the permit requirement for adults who can legally own a firearm. Permit data from the years since then is the evidence SAF now cites. Conviction rates measure only who gets convicted, not how many incidents occur or how often police make arrests. Those distinctions matter when opponents start quoting statistics back.
Why It Matters for Gun Owners
If you carry in Minnesota, Michigan, or Virginia, this data helps you in the next argument with a skeptical coworker or reporter. It does not, however, change your legal duties. Your permit still controls where and how you carry. Keep it current, carry it with your license when you drive, and know your state's rules on reporting a traffic stop. Gun owners who travel should check reciprocity before crossing state lines. Florida residents and visitors can carry without a permit under HB 543, but the law still bars carry in certain places and requires compliance with federal rules for prohibited persons. Expect anti-gun groups to highlight the Michigan figure of 0.24 percent. Do not let that number go unanswered, but do not repeat the SAF number without its traffic caveat. Dishonest framing cuts both ways, and a gun owner who gets caught overstating a statistic gives opponents an easy win.
DownRange Analysis
Bruen asks whether a law fits the text and historical tradition of the Second Amendment. It does not ask whether armed citizens commit fewer crimes than the general public. Courts will not strike down a permit scheme because the conviction rate looks low, and they will not uphold one because it looks high. Statistics like these matter in legislative hearings, in public opinion, and in briefs that argue a regulation is not tied to any real public safety need. That is the proper use of SAF's work. The market reads the same signals. Permit demand tends to rise when carriers feel safe defending the practice, and holster and training sales follow. What should a gun owner do right now? Pull the Fact Sheet and save the Minnesota, Virginia, and Michigan numbers with their caveats. Confirm your permit status and renewal dates. Then go to your next local meeting and make the case with accurate numbers, not talking points.
